Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
